Why this matters
Chronic absenteeism — missing 10%+ of school days — is the single strongest predictor of dropout risk and low achievement. Unlike suspensions (which affect a few students deeply), chronic absence is a diffuse problem affecting 1 in 4 US students post-pandemic. A steady multi-year decline signals strong family engagement; a flat line near the US average is the new normal but still a concern.
What we're seeing
At J FRED SPARKE, chronic absenteeism has fallen 7% over the 5-year window — from 10.9% in 2015 to 10.1% in 2020. Despite that, the gap vs US average of ~28% has actually widened — from 17.1% below in 2015 to 17.9% below in 2020.